Supply & Demand for 2nd Half 2021 | Market Sales Data

In today’s article, we shall look at the current market sales data to look into the current supply and demand for 2nd half of 2021.

The data which we will look at are the current new property current stock vs the last few years (supply), the current total sales for this year (demand), the current price trend (PPI) and the price by region.

Supply

Supply of new condo since 2015
Current Supply of New Developments

From the data above at the current supply, Singapore usually have around 25,000 supply of new private homes on average. At our lowest in 2Q 2017, we have around 15,000.

Currently, we are close to our lowest point of estimated 16,500 units in end Q3 2021, one of the lowest supply over the last 20 years.

Demand

New property sales for 2021
New home Sales Demand 2021 vs 2020

This year demand has been strong. This year 9 months of total sales has exceeded more than the whole of last year total sales. Note: Chart above show just for RCR.

Pricing – Property Price Index

Property Price Index Over Last 3 Years Since 2019
Property Price Index Over Last 3 Years Since 2019

Looking at the above property price index, you can see that the index keep increasing since 2019. As supply drops and demand increases as shown above, prices increase.

New Homes Market Data – 19th Oct 2021

1) Existing Inventory – 9,578 units in 134 Developments (Already Launch including Canninghill Piers)

2) Top 5 Districts with most available units.

  1. District 10 – 1,690 units
  2. District 9 – 1,339 units
  3. District 3 – 1,027 units
  4. District 5 – 749 units
  5. District 19 – 715 units

About 1/3 is in district 9 and 10, the Core Central Region. Due to over-stock, prices in these region are generally more attractive at a lower price.

Article by the Business Times

The Business Times, 19 Oct 2021, Tue 5:50 am

By Lisa Kriwangko

BUYERS are eyeing the core central region (CCR) as suburban prices catch up, according to analysts. The sentiment was seen after low-rise residential enclave Jervois Mansion moved 104 apartments out of the 105 put up for sale at a median price of S$2,548 per square foot (psf) by the end of its launch weekend on Oct 16 and 17.

Mark Yip, chief executive officer of Huttons Asia, said: “There is a lot of interest in projects in the CCR in recent months due to their attractive price points against some projects in the RCR (rest of central region).”

To compare, some developments in the RCR are priced above S$2,000 psf.

“Savvy investors have realized that by paying a bit more, they get a better deal in the CCR,” he added.

Property Price Index by Region

Singapore Pricing Index by location

Analyzing the Property Price index by region, you can see that right now the CCR (Core Central Region) is 1 of the most attractive location that is currently undervalue and it’s not at it’s peak.

Conclusion

For the above current supply & demand for 2nd half 2021, here are some conclusion that I would like to share.

1) Strong sales (Demand) coupled with low inventory (Supply) = Strong Price Increase Pressure.

2) Current Inventory is priced more attractively than future inventory due to high land acquisition and construction costs.

3) CCR is the most attractive for investment

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