Quarter 1 2024 Singapore Property Market Report & Analysis
In this article, we will be looking at both private properties and HDB in terms of both sales and rental market report for Quarter 1 2024 and what we will expect for the coming year ahead.
Private Residential Property Analysis
During the first quarter of 2024, transaction volume experienced a further moderation, influenced by festive activities, economic uncertainty, and heightened interest rates. Nevertheless, despite these factors, there was a modest increase noted in the all-residential property price index.
Buyers are exercising increased caution before making home purchases, influenced by a variety of factors. These include the looming economic uncertainty, a rise in retrenchment figures, and elevated interest rates. Additionally, buyers are prolonging their decision-making process due to the expanded housing options resulting from a surge in new home launches and an increase in resale listings following recent home completions. Some are postponing their home purchases in anticipation of potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2024, in hopes of securing better deals.
Robust new sales figures, exemplified by the success of Lentor Mansion and the rapid sales of remaining units at Cuscaden Reserve, highlight the keen interest of buyers in the new homes sector. However, modern homebuyers prioritize factors beyond mere location. Properties priced between $2-$2.5 million or those addressing functionality and sustainability requirements remain highly attractive to the majority of today’s buyers.
Price growth are mainly in the OCR and RCR region due to new home completions. We predict an increase in buyers’ interest with several high demand home launches to be launched in the following few months ahead. The forecasted reduction in interest rates would also help boost the demand for properties in the second half of the year.
Private Residential Price Index
Overall, the residential property price index grow by 1.5% in Quarter 1 2024 as compared to last quarter.
Looking at only the non-landed residential properties, the index increase by 1% in Q1 2024 as compared to 2.3% increase in the previous quarter. Prices of non-landed properties in the Outside Central Region (OCR) and the Rest of Central Region (RCR) increased moderately by 0.4% and 0.2% q-o-q. By contrast, prices of non-landed properties in the Core Central Region (CCR) rose by 3.1% q-o-q.
Private Property Transaction Volume
Total transaction volume falls by 20% in Quarter 1 2024. Likely, this is due to the limited number of launches combined with higher interest rate environment and sellers not willing to drop their price.
With increasing pricing but decreasing transactions, it usually means that people are not in an urgency to sell and want hold on to their ideal selling price. The TDSR has ensured that although with high interest rate, sellers are able to finance and not in a hurry to sell.
HDB Report for Quarter 1 2024
The HDB resale market continues to stabilise, with the Resale Price Index (RPI) reaching 183.5 in 1Q 2024, showing a growth rate of 1.7% q-o-q, compared to 1.1% q-o-q growth in 4Q 2023. Despite the festivities, resale volume in 1Q 2024 reached 6,928 transactions, marking 5.5% y-o-y growth.
As HDB prices continue to climb, a number of homeowners are capitalizing on the opportunity to upgrade to private residences. The expanding array of new home choices adds to the allure for those looking to transition from HDB flats.
In 1Q 2024, there were 185 million-dollar HDB flat transactions, marking a significant 79.6% y-o-y increase. The increase can be credited to private property owners who have completed their 15-month wait-out period and have subsequently acquired HDB resale flats. Introduced in September 2022, the 15-month wait-out period was implemented to help regulate demand for resale flats.
In addition to the increasing quantity of million-dollar flats, a growing number are also being sold at higher prices. Notably, since 2023, there has been a rise in transactions involving 4-room million-dollar flats. Furthermore, two million-dollar flats were sold for prices exceeding $1.5 million, both situated in Toa Payoh and characterized as relatively new properties. The demand for resale flats in mature estates remains robust, resulting in record-breaking selling prices for some of these properties.
Nevertheless, the general demand for HDB flats is anticipated to remain strong, especially for those situated near amenities and transportation hubs. Resale flats currently available, unaffected by the stricter resale conditions set for upcoming Prime and Plus flats, are expected to remain popular among buyers.
HDB Price Index
HDB Price Index
The HDB resale price index reached 183.5 in 1Q 2024, marking an all-time high. It grew by 1.7% q-o-q and 5.7% y-o-y.
As 1Q 2024’s 1.7% q-o-q growth remained below the average quarterly increase of 2.5% observed in 2022 and around 3.1% in 2021, indicating a moderation in HDB resale prices.
HDB Resale Transaction Volume
Resale transactions in 1Q 2024 totalled 6,928, marking an increase of 5.8% q-o-q from 6,547 in the previous quarter. Compared to the same period in 2023, which saw 6,567 transactions, 1Q 2024 experienced an increase of 5.5% y-o-y.
More flats expected to cross million-dollar mark in 2024
In 1Q 2024, there were 185 million-dollar flat transactions. Compared to the 4Q 2023, this reflected a notable 39.1% increase from 133 transactions. Year-on-year, the figure rose by 79.6% from 103 transactions in 1Q 2023. Since 2023, there have been significantly more 4-room flats reaching the million-dollar mark, and this trend would likely persist into 2024.
Conclusion
With buyers’ cautious approach, expected reduction in interest rate and TDSR in place, we would expect property prices for both private and HDB to continue increasing this year.
In fact, with more highly sought after location in the pipeline and if interest rate were to drop, this will open the floodgate for homebuyers to enter the market.
Looking at the private property price index, the gap between OCR and RCR starts to widen, seeing a better value in the OCR.
As for HDB, prices is expected to continue to grow for the next 3-4 years until a flood of newly MOP units (that were launched in 2023-2024) starts to enter the market, increasing the supply.